The USD/CAD weekly forecast stays in a gradual downtrend amid a weaker buck.
BoC and Fed divergence might stay favorable for the USD/CAD sellers.
Job reviews from either side, due subsequent week, will likely be key to observe.
The USD/CAD closed final week underneath strain, extending a gradual downward development that started in late 2025. Each currencies struggled to realize momentum, because the continued weak point of the US greenback persevered within the FX markets. In the meantime, the Canadian greenback was supported by secure home information. As a substitute of a pointy sell-off, the draw back transfer was restricted, as sellers nonetheless dominated however with none impetus.
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The first driver has been the altering outlook for US financial coverage. The US greenback additionally completed 2025 on the steepest annual decline in eight years, and this weak point carried into the primary full buying and selling week of 2026. Softer US labor information, coupled with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will ship no less than two charge cuts this yr, have weighed closely on the buck. Political uncertainty relating to the longer term management of the Fed has contributed to investor warning, conserving greenback rallies short-lived.
The Financial institution of Canada has held a extra average place on the Canadian facet. Though charge cuts have been left on the desk for a later time in 2026, officers have been cautious to not promise an excessive amount of, particularly when inflation charges are proving cussed in some quarters.
This comparative political stability has helped curb the negativity within the Canadian greenback, regardless of lingering international development considerations. Oil costs haven’t skyrocketed however have remained regular sufficient to help the CAD.
The earlier week’s worth motion recorded USD/CAD as probing on the decrease help however failing to interrupt decisively. The patrons are nonetheless seen on dips, indicating that the market stays cautious of pursuing draw back with out additional proof that the US information will worsen. That indecision has saved the 2 in a sluggish grind as an alternative of a precipitous fall.
The next week might be pivotal to set the path. Ought to US information help the story of decelerated development and waning inflation tracts, USD/CAD might lastly breach the help and open the door to an additional downward transfer. Then again, any constructive shock within the US, particularly relating to inflation, might induce a corrective rebound, as positioning is displaying a extra substantial imbalance towards the greenback.
Canadian information can even be important. Robust home releases could encourage CAD bulls, whereas financial weak point would rekindle downward danger on the foreign money and stabilize the USD/CAD trade charge.
USD/CAD Main Occasions Subsequent Week
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday)
US ISM Companies PMI (Tuesday)
ADP Employment and JOLTS Job Openings (Wednesday)
Canada Employment Report (Friday)
US NFP and Client Sentiment (Friday)
USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast: Corrective Upside Below 20-DMA
The USD/CAD every day chart reveals a corrective upside as profit-taking occurred because of the oversold RSI. Nonetheless, the worth stays nicely under the 20-day MA at 1.3765, whereas a number of MA crossovers recommend room for extra draw back.
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The upside might be capped by the 200-day MA close to 1.3860, whereas the draw back goal might be seen on the demand zone close to 1.3550. The symptoms recommend the trail of least resistance lies on the draw back.
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