In what ought to have been a serious market mover, a Russian drone strike on the important thing deep-sea port of Odessa initially pushed costs increased, however the rally shortly light because the session wore on. Merchants largely attributed the reversal to a stronger US greenback, which gained in opposition to a basket of main currencies. Whereas US SRW and HRW wheat stay among the many least expensive origins globally, the firmer dollar might start to dampen importer curiosity in US provides.
In the meantime, the US authorities shutdown has entered its second week, halting the discharge of key USDA knowledge. This week’s WASDE report has been suspended indefinitely, creating a big info vacuum in basic provide and demand knowledge. With out USDA updates, market individuals might want to rely extra closely on stories from different exporting nations to information value path. The shutdown additionally interrupts updates on US corn and soybean harvest progress, leaving room for hypothesis on ultimate yields, and provides uncertainty round Northern Hemisphere planting prospects as analysts flip to climate fashions for perception.
China has maintained its 2026 wheat and corn import tariff quotas on the identical ranges because the prior yr, with wheat set at roughly 9.64mmt and corn at 7.2mmt. The pleasing factor about that is that the announcement has been made early, whereas final yr the quotas weren’t launched till later within the yr, which saved the commerce guessing and resulted in some stem positions being pushed again. It is very important observe that the quotas will not be a assured import quantity, however slightly a framework that Chinese language importers can work inside relying on their urge for food.
