The wool business loves to speak about advertising and has actually spent billions over the many years on advertising. The meat business likes to trumpet about report lamb manufacturing and exports. Given the concentrate on advertising and exports, it could be helpful to have a powerful understanding of our fundamental unit of manufacturing – the scale and make-up of the Australian sheepo flock. At the moment the MLA estimate the sheep flock to be round 67 million, whereas the Australian Wool Manufacturing Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) estimate some 56.5 million sheep will probably be shorn in Australia this season, implying the flock dimension is round 55-56 million. This can be a 10 million head distinction between the estimates.
Determine 1 reveals annual flock dimension estimates from 2015 onwards produced by the MLA, ABS and the AWPFC (sheep shorn). The estimates have different throughout this era, with the AWPFC numbers probably boosted by untimely shearings early within the schematic. The ABS has solely launched some experimental estimates for 2023 and 2024 because it struggles to interchange the normal survey work which underpinned flock estimates. Since 2024 the MLA and AWPFC estimates have diverged broadly, and the ABS has been AWOL. In a secure state of affairs the place the flock was various primarily in response to altering seasonal situations this might not be too nice a problem. The manufacturing of sheep meat is measured on the abattoir and the manufacturing of wool with AWTA core check knowledge. Nevertheless the state of affairs for the Australian sheep flock is just not secure, with Western Australia a chief instance.
Wool provide knowledge helps the AWPFC estimates, for wool producing sheep. The query is whether or not non-wool producing sheep account for the distinction within the estimates, an answer which appears unlikely as it could require 15% of the flock to be made up of non-wool breeds. For 2024 and 2025 the MLA survey had the shedding/cleanskin proportion of ewes at 7%. Throughout the woolled breeds, the merino element of the woolclip has been regular in recent times (Determine 2) so there isn’t any nice change occurring from this angle. Â
The criticisms levelled on this article on the disparate estimates of the Australian sheep flock should not meant to minimise the issues of constructing such assessments. The purpose being made right here is that the business (wool and sheep meat) has an issue that wants fixing. Even a return to the triennial surveys of the sheep business within the Fifties and Seventies, printed by the BAE, could be a marked enchancment on the present state of affairs.
