The one factor not revised increased since December was the saleyard worth of cattle. ABARES makes use of the annual common of MLA’s Heavy Steer and Processor Cow indicators to supply their ABARES Saleyard Indicator Value. They now forecast that worth will find yourself having elevated by 27% within the 2025-26 monetary yr, to a median of 775¢/kg. In December, the 2025-26 estimate was 785¢/kg on the again of US demand for lean trim. The newest outlook has the ABARES indicator shedding 9% in 2026-27, to common 705¢/kg. They count on China’s new beef safeguard import measures, and a median to below-average rainfall outlook in southern Australia to push demand decrease.
This lower cost is forecast to result in decrease annual beef manufacturing throughout Australia in 2026-27 by 6% if cattle turn-off turns into much less engaging for producers. ABARES predicted 2.6 million tonnes carcase weight of beef would nonetheless be 18% above the 10-year common. If there’s much less rain than the Bureau of Meteorology’s autumn rainfall outlook for southeastern Australia at the moment reveals, manufacturing may stay rather a lot nearer to the place it’s in 2025-26, with the distinction being the females have already left the herd.
Decrease manufacturing will result in decrease beef and reside cattle export volumes and in flip, decrease whole worth within the new monetary yr. Presently it’s forecasted to be a document $19.8 billion in 2025-26 (a revision of $1.4 billion greater than ABARES December 2025 outlook), and to fall 18% in 2026-27. The typical annual beef export worth can also be anticipated to complete 2025-26 at a document excessive, earlier than dropping 12% in 2026-27 to $10.30/kg. This decline might be pushed by the decrease demand out of China as talked about, in addition to a stronger Australian greenback.
Stay cattle export worth will solely dip by 2% in 2026-27, nonetheless, as a forecast improve of two% in numbers exported is offset by a 3% decline in common worth for reside feeder/slaughter cattle. Stay cattle exports totalled 770,000 head in 2025, the best determine since 2021 and above the five-year-average. Monetary year-to-date reside cattle numbers are sitting at 5% above the identical interval in 2024-25.
