Brazil Coffee Harvest Pressures Weigh on Coffee Prices

September arabica espresso (KCU25) in the present day is down -5.10 (-1.66%), and September ICE robusta espresso (RMU25) is down -4 (-0.12%).

Espresso costs in the present day gave up an early advance and turned decrease because the tempo of the Brazil espresso harvest accelerated.  Safras & Mercado reported in the present day that Brazil’s general 2025/26 espresso harvest was 77% full as of July 16, forward of the comparable degree of 74% final 12 months and the 5-year common of 69%.  The breakdown confirmed that 93% of the robusta harvest and 67% of the arabica harvest have been full as of July 9.  In associated information, Brazil’s Cooxupe espresso co-op introduced on Tuesday that its harvest amongst members was 49.3% full as of July 11.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest espresso cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.  

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Espresso costs in the present day initially moved greater, with arabica posting a 3-week excessive on carryover help from Monday, because of indicators of extreme dryness in Brazil.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing space, Minas Gerais, obtained no rain throughout the week ended July 12.

Espresso costs are below strain from a rise in ICE-monitored inventories after robusta espresso inventories jumped to a 10-month excessive of 5,995 tons in the present day.  In the meantime, ICE-monitored arabica espresso inventories rose to a 5.25-month excessive of 892,468 baggage on Could 27 however have since backed off to 819,061 baggage as of Thursday.

Smaller espresso exports from Brazil are constructive for costs after Cecafe on Wednesday reported that Brazil’s complete Jun inexperienced espresso exports fell -31% y/y to 2.3 million baggage, with arabica exports down -27% y/y to 1.8 million baggage and robusta exports down -42% y/y to 476,334 baggage.  

Arabica espresso costs have help from President Trump’s announcement final Wednesday that he would impose 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, efficient August 1.  That risk induced concern that espresso provides may very well be disrupted from Brazil, the world’s largest producer of arabica espresso.

Espresso costs have retreated over the previous two months on the outlook for considerable espresso provides.  On June 25, the USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing will improve by +0.5% y/y to 65 million baggage and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year excessive of 31 million baggage.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica espresso, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta espresso.

Attributable to drought, Vietnam’s espresso manufacturing within the 2023/24 crop 12 months decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in 4 years.  Additionally, Vietnam’s Basic Statistics Workplace reported that 2024 Vietnam espresso exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT.   Moreover, the Vietnam Espresso and Cocoa Affiliation decreased its 2024/25 Vietnam espresso manufacturing estimate to 26.5 million baggage on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million baggage.  In contrast, the Vietnam Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported on July 7 that Vietnam’s Jan-Jun 2025 espresso exports have been up +4.1% y/y to 943,000 MT.

The USDA’s biannual report, launched on June 25, was bearish for espresso costs.  The USDA’s International Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world espresso manufacturing in 2025/26 will improve by +2.5% y/y to a file 178.68 million baggage, with a -1.7% lower in arabica manufacturing to 97.022 million baggage and a +7.9% improve in robusta manufacturing to 81.658 million baggage.  The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending shares will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million baggage from 21.752 million baggage in 2024/25.

For the 2025/26 advertising and marketing 12 months, Volcafe tasks a world 2025/26 arabica espresso deficit of -8.5 million baggage, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive 12 months of deficits. 

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