Two Democrats simply dropped a invoice that might shake prediction markets to their core.
Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff launched the DEATH BETS Act on March 10. The aim is easy. Make it unlawful to guess on wars, assassinations, and deaths.
Over $500 million was wagered on the timing of US army strikes in opposition to Iran alone. That’s the quantity Levin cited. and it’s onerous to disregard. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been quietly racking up a whole lot of tens of millions in quantity on precisely any such contract. DeFi prediction markets are within the crosshairs, too.
JUST IN: U.S. lawmakers launched the “DEATH BETS Act” to ban prediction markets that permit merchants guess on struggle, assassinations, or individuals dying. pic.twitter.com/UPyvHU5HQw
— SwanDesk (@SwanDesk) March 11, 2026
This one is value watching carefully.
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What the DEATH BETS Act Truly Says
This invoice doesn’t simply slap a warning label on these markets. It goes straight into the Commodity Alternate Act and bans them by legislation.
Any CFTC-registered platform can be prohibited from itemizing contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, struggle, or a person’s loss of life. That final one is new. The CFTC already had some authority over terrorism and assassination contracts. Including “a person’s loss of life” as its personal class is a significant enlargement.
Right here is why that issues. A regulatory rule will be reversed by the following administration. A legislation requires Congress to behave. That is constructed to stay.
NEW: US LAWMAKERS MOVE TO BAN PREDICTION MARKETS TIED TO DEATHS OR WARS
Democratic lawmakers, Adam Schiff and Mike Levin have launched laws geared toward banning sure prediction market bets.
The invoice targets contracts tied to struggle, loss of life, and assassinations. Lawmakers… pic.twitter.com/BaDx93UwGg
— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 11, 2026
Schiff was blunt about it. Betting on struggle and loss of life lets insiders revenue off nonpublic info, threatens nationwide safety, and encourages violence.
Levin went additional. He referred to as these markets immoral and mentioned platforms have been renaming assassination bets as “regime change” predictions simply to dodge current guidelines.
If that framing holds up in Congress, the door closes quick.
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Why Prediction Markets Are Abruptly within the Crosshairs
The Iran contracts weren’t a one-off. Polymarket ran a contract on Khamenei’s elimination that hit $54 million. Contracts on Maduro. On Ukrainian territory. These platforms turned a dwell marketplace for geopolitical intelligence with zero oversight.
(Supply: Polymarket)
That’s the invoice’s sharpest argument. If an intelligence official is aware of a strike is coming 48 hours early, they place a guess and money out. No person catches it. The CFTC has nothing near the SEC’s insider buying and selling infrastructure.
The Polymarket angle makes it messier. Trump Jr. joined their advisory board in early 2026. CFTC investigations into the platform reportedly stalled across the identical time. Draw your individual conclusions.
The invoice targets registered platforms immediately. DeFi protocols will not be explicitly named. Regulators have heard, “however it’s decentralized,” earlier than. It by no means holds endlessly. Centralized platforms get hit first, then the stress migrates out.
Levin admits the maths is hard. Republicans management each chambers, and prediction markets have allies in Trump circles. This possible stalls in committee.
But it surely doesn’t must move to matter. The CFTC is already rewriting the foundations, and this invoice forces them to maneuver tougher and quicker. The invoice might die, however the stress behind it is not going to.
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The put up Democrats Transfer to Ban Prediction Markets on Conflict and Loss of life: What It Means for DeFi appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
