The Australian Bureau of Statistics put revised (and excellent) flock figures out late final 12 months, which have been adopted by MLA and clarify among the vital modifications because the earlier sheep trade outlook. That stated, it comes as no shock in any respect that the forecast flock determine for 2026 is now 67.15 million head, a dip of practically 3% year-on-year. Comparatively, this 12 months’s quantity was forecast as 75.69 million in September of 2025, which might have been a rise of two% from the earlier 12 months. Historic figures have additionally been altered, however most significantly so have the longer-term projections. MLA now forecasts the flock to fall one other 1% subsequent 12 months and three% the next 12 months, placing it practically 7% decrease in 2028 in comparison with 2025 – placing it on the lowest stage on file.
The flock lower has been pushed by seasonal (and worth) induced excessive turn-off and has already began to considerably affect provide. Forecast lamb slaughter for 2026 is now 21.86 million head, the bottom quantity since 2021 and 11% decrease year-on-year. It isn’t anticipated to observe the flock lower long term, nevertheless, lifting in each of the following two years to be solely 5% under 2025 ranges by 2028. Sheep slaughter is one other story. It dropped greater than 13% final 12 months, and is predicted to fall one other 30% this 12 months, and proceed dipping in 2027.
Carcase weight will increase on the again of the adoption of additional lot feeding within the trade will offset among the decrease slaughter on the subject of precise sheep meat manufacturing and naturally export volumes. By 2028, sheep and lamb carcase weights are forecast to be 5% and three% increased than 2025 ranges respectively. This nonetheless means mutton manufacturing will probably be down 29% this 12 months. Lamb manufacturing is predicted to be about 543,000 tonnes this 12 months, a quantity that has dropped from 607,000 tonnes predicted in September. Lamb manufacturing is now forecast to be about 2% decrease than 2025 in 2028, in comparison with 3% increased, which was what the earlier outlook predicted.
MLA studies processors are working on a “destructive margin” as a result of traditionally robust sheep costs and rising prices together with rates of interest. And sustained increased costs on the again of tightening provide might affect Australia’s export competitiveness. Their analyst aggregation forecast has heavy lambs averaging 1,118¢/kg cwt this 12 months, restockers 1,103¢/kg, and commerce lambs 1,145¢/kg cwt.
