Mutton exports fell to their lowest month-to-month complete since July 2022 in March and haven’t been decrease for the month of March since 2012. Yr-on-year for March mutton was again 46%, and it was 25% under the five-year-average. And whereas sheep meat commerce to the Center East has fallen considerably, it was really decrease mutton volumes headed to China which made up a lot of the decrease commerce in March. China took 57% much less mutton year-on-year for the month of March, bringing their year-to-date mutton consumption 59% decrease in comparison with the identical time final yr, and about the identical proportion under the five-year-average for the quarter one. China’s market share of Australian mutton is at present 22%, the bottom it has been in a decade. The excessive value of sheep domestically might be beginning to impression demand on this market.
Transferring to lamb and given the report highs of the earlier two years, volumes are being maintained significantly better. Lamb exports have been solely 9% decrease year-on-year for March, bringing the year-to-date determine again by solely 5%, and leaving each the yr thus far and the month of March volumes above the five-year-average. That is nonetheless the commerce which is feeling the impression of the turmoil within the Center East, as volumes and market share dropping markedly. There hasn’t been much less Australian lamb despatched to the Center East in March since pre-2011, and it was again in 2021 since any month-to-month complete has been decrease. The UAE, for instance, is historically considered one of Australia’s prime 5 singular nation buying and selling companions, and it took 66% much less lamb in March.
We’re nonetheless two years away from the whole disbanding of stay sheep exports from Australia, however commerce with the standard key market has all however disappeared thus far this yr. We solely have two months of stay sheep export information out there thus far in 2026, however numbers in that interval are down 93% in comparison with the January-February interval final yr, and by far the bottom they’ve been since information started. Lower than 200 sheep left Australian shores in January, with the February complete of 4271 head 75% decrease year-on-year. Meat & Livestock Australia has forecast stay sheep exports to drop by 35% in 2026, to 120,000 head, however with conflict within the center east prone to impression the following few months earlier than the northern hemisphere summer season moratorium kicks in, even that traditionally low determine can be out of attain.
