March Nymex pure fuel (NGH26) on Friday closed up by +0.051 (+1.70%).
March nat-gas costs on Friday settled larger on a shift in US climate forecasts to colder temperatures, doubtlessly boosting heating demand for nat-gas. Â On Friday, the Commodity Climate Group stated that forecasts shifted colder, with below-normal temperatures anticipated throughout the US Midwest by February 24. Â
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US (lower-48) dry fuel manufacturing on Friday was 113.4 bcf/day (+12.5% y/y), in accordance with BNEF. Â Decrease-48 state fuel demand on Friday was 91.6 bcf/day (-30.3% y/y), in accordance with BNEF. Â Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday had been 19.8 bcf/day (+1.5% w/w), in accordance with BNEF.
Projections for larger US nat-gas manufacturing are bearish for costs. Â Final Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas manufacturing to 109.97 bcf/day from final month’s estimate of 108.82 bcf/day. Â US nat-gas manufacturing is at present close to a file excessive, with energetic US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year excessive final Friday.
Pure fuel costs surged to a 3-year excessive on January 28, pushed by the large storm that disrupted the US with Arctic chilly climate. Â The nicely beneath regular temperatures precipitated freeze-ups in fuel wells, disrupted manufacturing in Texas and elsewhere, and drove a spike in demand for pure fuel for heating. Â About 50 billion cubic toes of pure fuel got here offline, or about 15% of whole US pure fuel manufacturing, as a consequence of freeze-ups.
As a adverse issue for fuel costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported Thursday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended February 14 fell -1.61% y/y to 83,348 GWh (gigawatt hours). Â Nevertheless, US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending February 14 rose +2.36% y/y to 4,314,431 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas costs, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 13 fell by -144 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -149 bcf and the 5-year weekly common draw of -151 bcf. Â As of February 13, nat-gas inventories had been down -1.5% y/y and -5.6% beneath their 5-year seasonal common, signaling tight nat-gas provides. Â As of February 18, fuel storage in Europe was 32% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 49% full for this time of 12 months.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending February 20 was unchanged at a 2.5-year excessive of 133 rigs. Â Up to now 12 months, the variety of fuel rigs has risen from the 4.75-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.Â
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