Whereas lots has occurred, or not occurred in relation to rain, since April, the newest Beef Producer Intentions Survey carried out by Meat & Livestock Australia can provide us some perception into what restockers have been at the least planning on doing, and the way numbers are enjoying out this yr. The survey estimated the nationwide on-farm grassfed grownup beef cattle quantity was at 27.93 million as of the tip of March 2025, which was a lower from the 28.51 million head reported within the November 2024 survey.
Trying again on the November 2024 survey, the forecast change within the beef cattle herd by producers then was a 6% enhance, which might have taken the 2025 determine to 30.15 million, which can be the 2025 complete cattle quantity MLA forecast of their Cattle Trade Projections launched in March. Nevertheless, that they had the 2024 complete herd quantity at 30.56 million, which might point out a 1.4% lower in herd measurement from 2024 to 2025.
In November, of the producers surveyed, 45% have been intending to extend herd numbers and 39% have been planning to lower, whereas this April solely 26% have been planning on operating extra cattle. On the flip facet, nonetheless, November’s survey confirmed 39% have been going to lower, whereas in April it was solely 19%, with the remaining respondents intending to maintain their herd the identical measurement, which was a considerable 56% in April’s case. Whereas producer sentiment did really enhance from November to April, up 6% to 53%, the dearth of rain in April has little doubt influenced each these outcomes since.
Precise and forecast gross sales information from the survey additionally present a rise in turnoff in comparison with what was beforehand anticipated. In November 2024, producers anticipated to promote 8.45 million cattle between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025. In April, that determine elevated to 9.10 million. For the primary half of this yr, the April survey exhibits producers had turned off 51% of their anticipated gross sales in January-March, with 49% nonetheless to come back from April-June. Comparatively, the April 2024 survey had this break up at 43% offered within the first quarter, and 57% offered within the second.
