Trying backwards first, the ABS Livestock Merchandise quarterly report for the July to September interval reveals lamb slaughter dropping 23% in comparison with the earlier quarter, and 18% year-on-year. It was the bottom quarterly kill since March 2022, and the bottom September quarter determine since 2020. South Australia had its lowest lamb slaughter quarterly complete since June 1996. This brings year-to-date lamb slaughter, in line with ABS information, about 7% decrease than the identical interval final 12 months. MLA’s newest business projections had this determine at about 6% by year-end. Nationwide sheep slaughter additionally fell, down 21% from the June quarter and 26% from the September 2024 quarter.
Turning to intentions now, sheepmeat producer sentiment has surged to its strongest level because the conception of the survey three years in the past, and now 52% intend to extend their lamb flock in 2026. In final October’s survey, that determine was 40%. The October 2024 survey anticipated lamb flock measurement for 2025 was 27.23 million. The October 2025 survey estimate for 2025 is 27.92 million. The most recent survey’s anticipated lamb flock measurement for 2026 is 31 million head, a rise of 11% year-on-year.
precise and anticipated gross sales from the survey to offer an summary of anticipated provide, the most recent survey has 44% of the present lamb drop left to promote within the first half of 2026. That is down from 46% anticipated to be left to promote within the first half of 2025 within the earlier October survey. Nevertheless, the determine ended up being larger than that for the January to June 2025 interval. The February survey replace confirmed 43% of producers had extra nonetheless to promote than anticipated in October, pushing the estimate for the primary half of 2025 from 10.27 million head (within the October 2024 survey) to 11.81 million head (within the February 2025 survey), and the whole for 2024–25 to 22.34 million. Comparatively, ABS information has first-half lamb slaughter at 13.6 million, and FY complete at 26 million.
The entire precise and anticipated lamb gross sales for 2025–26 from this October’s survey is 23.87 million. Producers report precise gross sales of 4.42 million lambs from July by means of to the survey being taken in October (19%), with an extra 8.89 million to promote earlier than the top of the 12 months (37%). Producers within the survey count on to promote 10.55 million from January to June 2026 (44%), that means much less left within the system than the 12 months simply gone. ABS reported lamb slaughter for the September quarter at 5.2 million head. An fascinating aspect be aware to those figures is that regardless of complete lamb gross sales anticipated to be larger year-on-year, the lamb marking charge reportedly dropped from 81% in 2024 to 74% this 12 months.
