The annual run of southern January weaner gross sales could make or break sellers and set a benchmark for younger cattle costs going ahead. Whereas mainstream pondering tends to evaluate the relative success of weaner gross sales by how they examine to final 12 months and historic ranges, we like to take a look at whether or not the gross sales symbolize worth for patrons and sellers.
To measure worth, we examine weaner costs to the benchmark Japanese Younger Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and take a look at what kind of cash patrons would possibly make out of weaners bought in January.
Firstly, we take a look at Victorian weaner steer costs relative to the EYCI. This chart goes again to 2001. After we began accumulating this information in 2006, we spent a day within the State Library ‘The Weekly Instances’ beneath microfiche to search out weaner sale costs for 2001 to 2005. Nowadays, three clicks will get you the numbers on AuctionsPlus. How occasions have modified.
The numbers for 2026 are the EYCI and weaner costs from final week. Whereas absolute costs are nonetheless a way off the information set in 2022, by way of the premium to the EYCI, weaners sit at a really sturdy 22%.
Good November rain and the drive to restock in southern Victoria are little doubt serving to drive premiums for southern weaners in the intervening time. The EYCI has been treading water, with sturdy provides popping out of the north the place the herd has been constructing.
The second worth measure, the buying and selling margin, additionally appears to be like comparatively wholesome. Determine 2 exhibits the essential buying and selling margin for taking weaners by to export feeders. If southern producers have extra feed, rising cattle out to feeders is doubtlessly a worthwhile manner to make use of it.
Weaner costs can nonetheless change earlier than January. Determine 3 exhibits the EYCI has moved considerably in January in three of the previous 5 years. Robust rallies in 2021 and 2024 are countered by a fall in 2023. The principle driver of January worth change is summer time rainfall within the north.
The December outlook is very miserable for these in search of rain, whereas January is trying extra promising.
Be aware. This commerce state of affairs calculation doesn’t permit for price reminiscent of freight, administrative prices and makes use of an assumed price of feed; Â these will fluctuate between enterprises and needs to be calculated on a case-by-case foundation when contemplating any commerce.
