The US is the most affordable origin for the time being and is seizing a lot of the importer curiosity. Russian FOB values stay elevated due to sluggish farmer promoting and the prices related to getting grain to port from the central areas. This has additionally allowed French wheat to function in some non-routine tenders which has been uncommon in recent times.
Australia can be seeing some late ‘out of season’ demand for previous crop enterprise into Southeast Asia at a time when Black Sea grain would usually dominate the export grid.
On the steadiness sheet aspect, main exporter stocks-to-use ratios have shifted from comfy to comparatively tight, suggesting that costs ought to at the least stay secure. Whereas my bias leans towards increased costs, a number of headwinds weigh on the quick to mid-term outlook: a delayed however giant Russian crop, subdued Chinese language shopping for, a file corn harvest competing for Asian feed demand, and stable Southern Hemisphere manufacturing prospects.
Geopolitics, and particularly the commerce dispute sparked by Trump’s tariffs, are starting to reshape world grain flows. In accordance with Reuters, Southeast Asian nations are rising as key gamers, with Indonesia and Bangladesh already committing to bigger US grain purchases below agreements that scale back tariffs on their exports to the US. Regional grain merchants additionally report that Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand are getting ready to step up feed grain imports below comparable preparations. This has the potential to displace extra ‘pure’ commerce flows from Australia, Canada or the Black Sea which have freight or value benefits.
On the lookout for a brilliant spot, futures markets present robust carry, with deferred contracts buying and selling effectively above spot ranges (e.g., Dec ’25 at 531c/bu versus Dec ’26 at 599c/bu). This displays the rising significance of subsequent season’s manufacturing throughout all main exporters.
